THE SANDBOX SYNDROME

FALLING LIKE DOMINOES

[HEADS IN THE SAND]

So, our fearless leaders think they can “solve” all the problems in the Mid-East and Persia! If all our past attempts are any indication, our fearless leaders are in for a rude awakening.

Does the civilized world need to eradicate scourges like ISIL?

                                                  You betcha!

Is the United States the only entity capable of handing out guns and pulling triggers?

                                                  I don’t think so!

Somewhere along the way, our foreign policies and perceptions got skewed toward making us believe this part of the World really wanted our style of governance, economy, and society. We collectively forgot that, to this day, much of the World is still tribal, and acts in ways that tend to baffle and frustrate us. In doing so, we tend to get other folks rather upset with our “exceptionality”. That said, the current state of terrorism is generally more of a threat to the Mid-East, Persia, Northern Africa, and Europe than it is to the North American continent.

The past is gone, and we can’t do anything to change that. What we can do is take a realistic and honest look at where things stand now; including governance, economy, and society in the Nation-States most affected by the current rash of terrorism. The United States, especially, should be sensitive to recognizing a people’s right to self-governance; governance that will most likely look very different from the one we chose. After all, didn’t we fight a little war back in the 1700’s to do just that? Our Colonies were originally created out of religious persecution in Europe, and our Revolution was fought over the Colonial exploitation of Great Britain. So, perhaps trying to control all the tribal factions in this area of the World is not what the “West” should be concentrating on. Hell, it’s like herding cats, anyway; a no-win situation.

One blatant truth that has run constant in the Mid-East and Persia is that Iran pulls the strings when it comes to dominating and solidifying the entire region. They have been it doing ever since the overthrow of the Shah in the late 1970’s. Apparently, they are a very patient people, and are slowly turning and twisting all the neighboring Nation States toward their religious caliphate. It is also apparent that the “West” has no idea of how to deal with type of religious expansionism. It seems Russia is in the same boat.

In trying to micro-manage the region, both the United States and Russia have attempted to slow the tide of Islamic Statehood. What has been lost is a focus on just how tribal/religious sects operate and govern their society and economy. Throw in misunderstanding and the greed for oil, and you have Super-Powers tripping all over themselves trying to exploit the region and at the same time keeping the peace, so their exploitations remain successful. The loss of focus on what is actually going on has led both Russia and the United States into quagmire after quagmire of armed conflict, which neither Country can afford, on multiple levels.

Taking all this into consideration, the World, in general, might want to reconsider the old “Domino Theory” (sic. twenty years of Vietnam for the U.S.; twelve years of Afghanistan for the Russians; centuries in Southeast Asia for China). This “Theory” has been used to mislabel many attempts to quell expansionism, colonialism, and exploitation. The “Domino Theory” certainly applies to modern day conflict(s) in the Mid-East and Persia. Take a very close look at Iran’s sponsorship of insurgencies and terrorist actions. Their actions are very quiet, slow, and patient, but completely insidious. It is deliberatively affecting the formation of one large, powerful Islamic caliphate ruled over by the powers in Tehran.

How does Iran do it? They slowly cement their ideology on a tribe-by-tribe basis. They do not directly attack the governments of neighbor States; they slowly create chaos and mayhem on a local level, and then duplicate the process from tribe to tribe, village to village, region to region. Their strategy is one of a ground up insurgency using religion and terrorism, instead of outright regime change (favored by the U.S. and Russia). I don’t know about Russia, but the U.S. has been warned of endless conflicts and armed quagmires for many years and by many Leaders and Heads of State. The most famous admonition I can remember came from Charles De Gaulle, President of France, in the 1961. He warned President Kennedy that warfare in Vietnam would trap America in a bottomless military and political swamp. Prior to that, ex-President Dwight Eisenhower mused that, having a row of dominoes set up, you knock the first one down, and the last one will fall very quickly thereafter. Eisenhower’s thinking led to the modern-day term; “Domino Theory”.

The last ten years have brought the Mid-East to a boiling point that has made the Iranian leadership ecstatic. As Russia, China, and the United States flex their diplomatic and military muscles in this region, Iran will force a tipping point that will look catastrophic to the rest of the World. The “Domino Theory” sets up like this:

1. Iran coddles Al-Qaeda and ISIL by furnishing them safe haven, training, weapons, and finances.

2. As the dominoes fall, Iran sets up "puppet" governments who force Sharia Law on the local tribes.

3. For the dominoes that prove a little tougher to topple, Iran foments Civil War to accomplish their mission.

4. Iran keeps Israel at bay by bolstering Palestine's military arsenal.

5. There are certain tribal areas that Iran will not touch until the very end of their jihadist expansion. Those left until the end will be: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and, possibly, Turkey.

6. Iran allows the United States to continue the destabilization in Pakistan. A job the U.S. seems to do well.

7. At some point, the Superpowers pull out of the Mideast, and abandon it altogether. The sheer cost of Nation Building becomes prohibitive for all concerned.

8. Pakistan falls to Iran, and Iran gets its nuclear weapons without having to rejoin their own nuclear program.

9. The U.S. is reluctant and slow to come to the aid of Israel. This leaves Israel no alternative but to take matters into their own hands, and all Hell breaks loose; especially, if Iran has secured Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

As all Hell is breaking loose, the United Nations will be called upon to come up with a viable plan of action. At this point, the most efficient plan would be for the United Nations to sanction and oversee some form of legal assassination. If such a plan were successful, after a certain number of assassinations, the Arab tribes might get the message and reject Iran’s intentions. This drastic step may be the only means by which to avoid mass collateral damage. This drastic step also needs the ownership of governments and militaries in the region.

Take a moment and consider Iran as our modern-day North Vietnam. Think back to Dwight Eisenhower’s summation that the Domino Theory was a real possibility in the Vietnam Conflict era. As in the current Mid-East situation, the U.S. was able to keep the dominoes from falling too fast, but, in the end, the result was exactly as Eisenhower had predicted. To this date, our Government refuses to equate the two conflicts. Unfortunately, those Americans with first-hand knowledge of Vietnam have no doubt about the similarities.

If Israel were to succumb to the new Islamic caliphates and end up in the Sea, Iran formally takes the reigns and declares the entire Mideast/Persian region a Supreme Islamic Caliphate. Iran will then control the land mass from India all the way to the Mediterranean Sea. The big question to follow is who among the Superpowers tries to sneak in the back door and form alliances with the new Church Nation, and how will that work out? The next question is where does Iran take its Islamic expansion from here?

And, there you have your “Heads in the Sand”and your “Dominoes in the Desert”!